THE EFFECTIVE PROBLEMSOLVER #091
Welcome to a hands-on problem-solving series in The Effective Problemsolver.
Over the next few newsletters, we’ll use ChatGPT as a thinking partner to systematically break down the fentanyl crisis—a problem that defies simple explanations and one-size-fits-all solutions.
The goal? To think more clearly before we act.
Why This Matters
The fentanyl epidemic isn’t just another drug crisis. It’s the deadliest drug epidemic in U.S. history:
- 110,000+ overdose deaths per year—the equivalent of a 9/11 event every two weeks.
- Fentanyl is 50 times stronger than heroin and often mixed into other drugs, leading to unintentional overdoses.
- Over half of all overdose deaths now involve fentanyl, not just opioids.
The crisis has spiraled so quickly that even experts struggle to grasp its complexity.
But instead of adding another opinion to the mix, we’re going to do something different: apply systems thinking—starting with first-order causes.
Step 1: Finding First-Order Causes
Before we can talk about solutions, we need to clearly define what’s causing the problem.
Not correlations. Not ideological talking points. Not vague system critiques.
Actual causal factors.
How to Filter Out Noise
To get to first-order causes, we need to remove:
- Correlations – Just because two things happen at the same time doesn’t mean one caused the other. (Example: Ice cream sales and drownings both rise in summer, but ice cream doesn’t cause drowning.)
- Ideological Claims – Arguments that focus on broad political or moral explanations rather than testable, direct causes. (Example: “Capitalism causes fentanyl deaths” is not a useful starting point—it’s too broad to be actionable.)
- Vague Systemic Critiques – Phrases like “the system is broken” or “society has failed” may be emotionally compelling, but they don’t tell us what specifically is driving the crisis or where to intervene.
Step 2: Using ChatGPT to Identify First-Order Causes
One way to practice this kind of thinking is to ask ChatGPT the right questions. Here’s a prompt you can try:
Prompt:
"What are the top 5 causal factors of the fentanyl crisis? Causes only, not correlations please."
ChatGPT’s Response:
- Illicit Fentanyl Production & Trafficking – Advances in synthetic opioid production, primarily in China and Mexico, have enabled mass production of fentanyl and its analogs. Unlike plant-based drugs (e.g., heroin), fentanyl can be cheaply synthesized in labs, making it more profitable and easier to distribute.
- Substitution from Prescription Opioids to Illicit Fentanyl – Crackdowns on prescription opioids (e.g., OxyContin reformulation, DEA prescribing limits) reduced access for dependent users, leading many to seek alternatives in heroin and eventually fentanyl, which dealers introduced due to its potency and low cost.
- Extreme Potency & Market Incentives – Fentanyl is 50x more potent than heroin, meaning traffickers can transport smaller amounts while maintaining or increasing profit margins. This has incentivized dealers to mix fentanyl into other drugs (heroin, cocaine, counterfeit pills) to maximize effects while lowering costs, increasing overdose risks.
- Supply Chain Resilience & Evasion Tactics – Unlike plant-based drugs that require large-scale farming and processing, fentanyl can be produced in small, decentralized labs. Traffickers have adapted quickly to enforcement efforts by shifting production locations, changing smuggling routes, and developing new fentanyl analogs to evade regulation.
- Delayed Public Health & Harm Reduction Responses – The slow adaptation of harm reduction strategies (e.g., fentanyl test strips, supervised consumption sites, widespread naloxone distribution) allowed overdose deaths to escalate. Many communities lacked early warning systems and rapid response measures to address the shifting drug supply.
Step 3: ChatGPT Is a Starting Point, Not the Answer
It’s tempting to take this list and assume we now understand the problem. But that would be a mistake.
Using ChatGPT for problem-solving is like using a power tool—it speeds up thinking, but it doesn’t do the thinking for you.
It generates plausible answers, but it doesn’t verify them.
That’s your job.
So before moving forward, test these first-order causes against real-world evidence:
- Are each of these causes actually true? – Dig into research, news reports, and expert analyses. Do these factors hold up under scrutiny?
- Are there other first-order causes missing? – What didn’t show up in the ChatGPT answer that might be equally or more important?
- What are we assuming? – Are any of these factors oversimplified? Could fentanyl deaths be rising for reasons not yet considered?
ChatGPT is an amazing thinking partner, but if we don’t challenge its answers, we’re just outsourcing our reasoning.
Next: Second-Order Causes—What’s Driving These Factors?
Now that we have a list of first-order causes, we have to go deeper.
Where do these causes come from? What deeper forces make them possible?
In Part 2, we’ll investigate second-order causes to get a deeper understanding of the problem.
Because if we don’t get this part right, every intervention will be built on a faulty foundation.
See you in two weeks.
