THE EFFECTIVE PROBLEMSOLVER #076
For many years, I worked on initiatives to fight unemployment, with a focus on training low-income workers for jobs with the highest forecasted growth.
Our approach seemed perfect—matching people with the jobs employers most desperately needed to fill.
It felt like we were making a real difference.
But then the market crashed, unemployment skyrocketed, and the sectors we had built our training infrastructure around suddenly didn’t need workers. Our once-promising solution crumbled under the weight of economic upheaval.
For a long time, I thought we had simply made the wrong decision by picking the wrong industry sectors. I blamed myself for not seeing the bigger picture.
But then it hit me: our mistake wasn’t in the sectors we chose, but in making a prediction and subsequently putting all our eggs in one basket.
The problem was deeper than a wrong choice—it was our entire approach.
What if there was a way to make better decisions that would work, regardless of dramatically changing conditions? What if our strategies could not only withstand shocks but thrive in them?
That’s what we’re going to dive into today.
Preparing for tomorrow
In our relentless fight against poverty, homelessness, and crime, we often cling to the comforting illusion that by making the right predictions, we can choose the best solutions.
One community college president I used to work with never tired of quoting Wayne Gretsky:
“Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been."
So obvious, right? Train students for the jobs of tomorrow.
But the assumption of that phase, when applied to real life problems, is that we can forecast the future with such precision that we can navigate around tomorrow’s thin ice.
But here’s the brutal truth: no one, not even the brightest minds, can reliably predict even the near-term future.
The community colleges couldn’t, not because they lacked data or forecasting skill, but because the future is, to a large degree, unknowable.
This insight demands a radical shift in our strategy for social change.
The question becomes: How can we choose a strategy that is future-proof?
Thriving amidst uncertainty
Enter antifragility, a concept brilliantly coined by Nassim Taleb.
Antifragility isn’t about merely surviving the unpredictable; it’s about thriving amidst uncertainty.
Unlike fragile systems that crumble under stress or resilient ones that simply bounce back, antifragile systems grow stronger when exposed to volatility, shocks, and randomness.
When it comes to addressing poverty, homelessness, and crime, we need strategies that don’t just hold up under ideal conditions but excel regardless of what the future throws our way.
Here are a few examples.
Antifragile unemployment approaches
For unemployment, an antifragile approach might focus on transferable skills over training in just one occupation or industry, and strengthening connections to the local economy rather than relying on a few big corporations.
Training programs that develop versatile skills ensure that people can adapt to a variety of job markets, making them less susceptible to industry-specific downturns.
Antifragile solutions to homelessness
For homelessness, the focus wouldn’t be on making big housing investments that might become burdensome during economic downturns.
Instead, it would utilize existing affordable housing and provide comprehensive services such as addiction treatment and mental health support. These services address the more fundamental causes of homelessness and help individuals build stability.
Building social capital through community support networks would also enhance resilience, as people with strong social ties are better equipped to handle personal crises without falling into homelessness.
Antifragile crime reduction
On the crime front, an antifragile strategy might emphasize building enduring relationships between police and the community. This means investing in community policing initiatives that foster trust and cooperation, rather than relying solely on punitive measures.
By cultivating strong, positive relationships, communities become more cohesive and better equipped to prevent and respond to crime. This trust-based approach can adapt to changing social dynamics and remains effective even when traditional law enforcement methods falter.
Pragmatic ways to move towards antifragile problemsolving
So, how can you begin building antifragile strategies for social change?
Here are three tips for getting started:
1. Diversify and decentralize
Just as a diversified investment portfolio reduces risk, a diversified approach to social programs ensures that if one element fails, others can still succeed. Decentralized initiatives empower local communities, making solutions more adaptable and responsive to specific needs and changes.
2. Embrace redundancy
In an antifragile system, redundancy isn’t waste—it’s a safeguard. This could mean having multiple support systems for the homeless or various pathways out of poverty, ensuring that if one route is blocked, others remain open.
3. Build robust feedback loops
Constantly gather data, but not just to predict. Use it to learn and adapt. Programs should be designed to evolve based on what’s working and what’s not, allowing for continuous improvement in the face of new challenges.
By shifting our approach from trying to predict the future to preparing for many possible realities, we can build a society that doesn’t just survive uncertainty but thrives in it.
The journey towards reducing unemployment, homelessness, and crime isn’t about having perfect foresight; it’s about crafting robust, adaptable strategies that grow stronger through the very challenges they encounter.
Let’s be bold enough to embrace uncertainty and humble enough to admit we can’t predict the future—only prepare for it.
See you in two weeks.
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Whenever you’re ready, there are two ways I can help you:
→ I’m a strategic advisor for the toughest societal problems like poverty, crime and homelessness. People come to me when they want to stop spinning their wheels and get transformative, systems-level change.
→ I’m a coach for emerging and executive leaders in the social and public sectors who want to make progress on their biggest goals and challenges.
Let’s find out how I can help you become transformational.