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In today’s issue, I’m going to show you how to make decisions that maximize impact over time.

If you adopt this method, you’ll drastically improve your ability to consistently make progress on social problems regardless of changing conditions.

And even when a solution fails – which is likely – you can relax because the method incorporates learning from mistakes.

Unfortunately, most changemakers don’t have any type of adaptive decision-making process.

Consistent progress doesn’t happen by chance. It happens by carefully choosing a journey that embraces the problem’s complexity.

The method that I’m going to use today is called “adaptive decision-making” and based on insights from complexity science.

The benefits of this approaches are:

• It’s easy to learn from mistakes.
• It’s easy to change strategy based on new information.
• You’ll be able to test small changes to see what works.
• You’ll be able to strategically manage the problem over time.

Rather than describe complexity theory, I’m going to outline three characteristics of complex problems that characterize issues like poverty, homelessness and crime:

• Lack of information about the problem, especially as it changes day-to-day based on human behavior.
• Large number of interconnected variables in which one change affects others in unpredictable, time-delayed ways.
• Many people are involved in the problem, each with their own perspective about the problem, the objective and the solution.

Ironically, if you can embrace inherent uncertainty about the problem, you’re much more likely to make progress. 

Why?

Because instead of seeing the problem as a puzzle with one simple, pre-determined solution, you can pragmatically manage it as a dynamic phenomena. 

Here’s what to do:

Adopt a process to learn about problem

The most important part of this method is that you embrace an adaptive learning mindset.

What that means is you are committed to learn continually with a process.

Most people study the problem only briefly and then spend all their time championing their favored solution. Their journey is set by a one-time decision about the problem and its solution:

Study problem (a few days) → Determine solution (once) → Implement solution (years)

(Full disclosure: I spent years futilely acting this way.) 

But complex problems aren’t about one-time decisions or finding “the answer.” By definition, they don’t have singular “solutions.” 

Rather, it’s about continually refining understanding and action through research, testing and evaluation.

Think of this like your own personal scientific method.

My favorite framework is the 4-part process from Hester and Adams:

Structure problem → Think → Act → Observe

By going through the steps iteratively (in which you jump back to previous steps as your understanding increases), you continually refine your idea of the problem and how best to influence it. 

Let’s dive a little deeper into the step-by-step for problem structuring and assessing solutions.

How to determine the problem’s structure 

The unique structure of the problem’s relationships determines its behavior. 

In this step, you’re going to start problem structuring by creating a causal loop diagram. 

Here’s one loop I created for examining how temporary homeless shelters may counterintuitively reduce the demand for more fundamental solutions.

5 steps to create a causal loop diagram

1. Brainstorm causal variables 
2. Draw connections between relevant variables. (X → Y means that X causes some sort of change in Y.)
3. Identify relationships as either + or -. (X → Y with a + means that as X increases, Y increases.)
4. Identify the most important loops. Reinforcing loops are compounding, whereas balancing loops tend to plateau.
5. Match loops to common systems archetypes (such as balancing with delay, limits to growth and shifting the burden – there’s about a dozen). Learning the patterns of  common loops will give you insight about how to change the problem’s dynamics.

How to assess trade-offs

After you know the structure of your problem and how it behaves, you want to analyze each potential course of action before acting.

What you’re doing in this step is trying to figure out the consequences – desirable and not – of potential actions. Based on the loops you just created, what are the likely first- and second-order effects?

Because complex problems are webs of interrelated causal factors, there is no such thing as a perfect solution.

As Thomas Sowell said, “The question is not whether “problems” are “solved” – they will not be – but whether the best trade-offs available have been made.”

4 questions to weigh trade-offs

1. How will this change flow through the problem’s loops?
2. What are the potential positive and negative effects? 
3. What is the cost?
4. Are there alternative courses of action?

Once you implement a trade-off, you’ll want to closely observe the effects.

I hate to say it, but chances are that it won’t work exactly as planned.

But that’s OK. You can take what you’ve learned and restart the problem-solving process with new insights and information.

To recap:

For complex problems, adaptive decision-making processes beat one-time decisions. And trade-offs are the only realistic way to think about “solutions.”

See you again next week.

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Whenever you’re ready, there are two ways I can help you:

→ I’m a strategic advisor for the toughest societal problems like poverty, crime and homelessness. People come to me when they want to stop spinning their wheels and get transformative, systems-level change.

→ I’m a coach for emerging and executive leaders in the social and public sectors who want to make progress on their biggest goals and challenges.

Let’s find out how I can help you become transformational.