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This week’s tip: Consider potentially unintended consequences before acting.

In order to reduce homelessness and crime, you have to choose effective solutions.

Sounds obvious, right?

Well, I’ve watched countless “solutions” be implemented during my 17 years in the social sector (examples below). While some contributed to problem improvement, others didn’t. And some even made the problem worse.

Hence Peter Senge’s first law of systems: Today’s problems come from yesterday’s “solutions.” 

One of the main reasons this happens is that changemakers don’t evaluate the second-order consequences of their decisions before acting. What a missed opportunity!

While there’s no “right” way to evaluate a potential solution, I wanted to share how I think about it.

Here’s 2 reasons why people make the mistake, and my 5-step checklist to help choose more effective solutions. 

Let’s dive in.

Why people act without considering consequences

1. Treating symptoms is quick and easy

Quick fixes often alleviate the immediate symptom, but the relief is temporary. After a short time, the problem comes back, often worse than before. 

For example, a strict rent control ordinance was recently adopted in my city (St. Paul, MN), capping rent increases to 3% per year. The intent was to create more affordable housing, but the second-order consequence was an 82% reduction in new multi-unit building permits. Rising construction costs (+18%) made development under the cap untenable. 

Now, the city council is amending the former “solution” because it’s actually preventing affordable housing development.

2. Moving the problem makes it seem like it’s gone.

Action to solve the problem may seem like it’s working, but it just shifts the problems to others.

After the murder of George Floyd, a majority of the Minneapolis City Council pledged to defund the police. Officer count declined from 890 in June 2020 to 626 two years later. Over the same period, violent crime went up 24%. 

The causes are multi-faceted and debatable. 

But what isn’t debatable is that the burden of fewer police officers fell overwhelmingly on poorer neighborhoods. Affluent neighborhoods may still support the change, but they didn’t have to directly experience much of the rising crime. 

Now, the mayor and City Council are trying to undo the previous “solution” and increase officer count.

So how can you avoid choosing solutions that create tomorrow’s problems?

5-step checklist to choose effective solutions

Step 1: Consider why previous efforts failed.

If problems are getting worse, you know that earlier solutions aren’t having their intended effect. Play detective and see if you can figure out why.

Step 2: Consult scientific evidence

You’d be amazed by how many people pursue their chosen solution without consulting existing evidence. Peer-reviewed research doesn’t tell you what to do, but it can inform possible feedback loops.

Step 3: Examine the change in different circumstances

How would your desired change fare if we entered a recession? Or funding declined? Conditions are likely to change, so consider how you can choose flexible solutions.

Step 4: Play out scenarios 

Create a list of first-order effects of the potential solution. Then, for each effect, consider it’s second-order effects. Problem mapping can help, but it’s not required. A good imagination (and the question “what’s the worst that can happen?”) is all you need.

Step 5: Test potential solutions with those involved

Gathering different perspectives can reveal potential unintended consequences. You’ll want to make sure you spend time with those you disagree with and try to understand why they oppose any given change.

To recap

Solutions have consequences. A process of deliberation before acting can help you choose effective options that don’t unintentionally make the problem worse.

See you again next week.

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Whenever you’re ready, there are two ways I can help you:

→ I’m a strategic advisor for the toughest societal problems like poverty, crime and homelessness. People come to me when they want to stop spinning their wheels and get transformative, systems-level change.

→ I’m a coach for emerging and executive leaders in the social and public sectors who want to make progress on their biggest goals and challenges.

Let’s find out how I can help you become transformational.