THE EFFECTIVE PROBLEMSOLVER #107
Every now and then in the social sector, an idea comes along that makes otherwise sensible people lose their grip.
You can see it in the room.
Heads start bobbing like dashboard figurines.
People applaud statements that don’t actually contain verbs.
Somebody uses the word “transformative,” then says it again just in case the first time didn’t hit hard enough.
At that moment, something curious happens.
The very same people who would never sign a contract without reading the fine print suddenly stop asking questions.
Critical thinking quietly excuses itself, shuffles toward the exit, and leaves us all alone with the confetti cannon.
This is not the same as the “fake visions for change,” or the “conspiracy for success,” or the “vision trap” I’ve written about before.
You can revisit those pieces if you want the anatomy of the dream itself.
What I’m talking about here is the way our brains simply switch off when a big bold idea is dangled in front of us.
The dream may be dubious, but the real problem is that we stop checking the math.
The Grocery Store Bitcoin Pitch
Picture yourself in the checkout line at Cub Foods.
A stranger leans in and whispers:
“Listen, Bitcoin doubled in two weeks. This is it …the moment you’ve been waiting for. Sell the house, cash out the 401(k), and put it all in.”
Now, what do you do? Do you:
- Sign over the deed and hope for the best, or
- Ask a couple of bothersome questions about historical returns, volatility, and whether you’d like to spend the rest of your life explaining to your sister-in-law why you’re living in her basement?
In your personal life, you’d probably chuckle, mumble something polite, and head for the parking lot.
But in the social sector, the same pitch goes something like this:
“We’re going to end childhood poverty in five years.”
Or: “We’re going to to use AI reinvent the economic development system.”
Or: “We’re going to transform every community in America with this one shiny idea.”
And instead of chuckling, we nod gravely.
We form committees. We print banners. We order the cupcakes for the launch party.
The very same people who will haggle with their financial advisor over a quarter of a percentage point in fees will sit quietly while billions of public dollars are promised to initiatives that have about as much detail as a roadside magic show.
The Boring Wisdom of Mutual Funds
Here’s the thing: we actually know how the world works.
Boring, low-cost mutual funds have outperformed the majority of hotshot investors for decades.
Slow and steady, turtle versus hare, plodding along. It’s not glamorous, but it works.
And yet, when it comes to schools or neighborhoods or public safety, we want fireworks.
We want the moonshot.
We want to feel that something bold is happening, even if the evidence is thin and the risks are hiding under the table.
If you ask a tough question in these moments (something as innocent as “Has this been tried anywhere else?”), you’ll get the same look as if you’d spilled a glass of red wine across someone’s brand new white carpet.
Eyes Wide Open
I’m not against ambition.
I’ve been guilty myself of standing at the podium and promising more than I could possibly deliver. (I’d prefer those old speeches to stay in the archives, thank you very much.)
Dreaming is not the issue.
The issue is that the minute a dream arrives dressed up with a marching band and a hashtag, our brains check out.
The same people who wouldn’t gamble a week’s paycheck on a tip from a stranger will gamble the public’s money – sometimes whole state budgets – on promises with no receipts.
The public doesn’t need us to stop dreaming.
They need us to stop abandoning our judgment when the dream feels good.
Three Ways to Keep Your Wits About You
So next time you find yourself swept up in the excitement of a bold new initiative, do yourself and everyone else a favor:
- Ask for the receipts. What’s the evidence that this works beyond the glossy case study? Where are the failures written down? If you can’t find them, someone’s hiding something.
- Run the downside scenario. Every investment has a risk. What happens if this doesn’t pan out? Who pays the bill? Who gets left out in the cold? If nobody can describe the worst-case scenario, it’s because they haven’t thought it through.
- Compare it to the turtle. Don’t weigh the moonshot against doing nothing. Weigh it against steady, evidence-based investments that already have a track record. Compare the fireworks to the plodder. The plodder usually wins.
Excitement has its place.
I’ve certainly been carried away more times than I care to count.
But if you wouldn’t buy Bitcoin in the checkout line, don’t let your critical lens vanish just because the social sector rolled out another shiny idea with a fancy logo.
Keep your eyes wide open.
The turtle is waiting.
See you in two weeks,
-Bryan
