I used to approach complex issues like homelessness with a sense of certainty, believing that I could find the ultimate solution through deductive reasoning.
I would gather facts, analyze data, and consult peer-reviewed studies to prescribe the best course of action.
It seemed logical.
But I’ve come to realize that my assumption was deeply flawed and, quite frankly, impossible.
Today, I invite you to join me on a personal journey, as we explore the art of navigating uncertainty and making informed decisions despite the inherent unknowingness we face.
Together, we will delve into the profound insights of W. Brian Arthur and uncover the transformative power of embracing imagination in our problem solving.
You can’t logically solve what hasn’t yet happened
W. Brian Arthur, a renowned economist, asserts that the intricacies and interdependencies within complex systems defy straightforward analysis, making it impossible to determine a single best course of action.
For complex problems, numerous factors and variables interact dynamically, creating a web of interconnectedness.
The outcomes of decisions and actions in these problems are shaped by countless autonomous actors and their responses to ever-evolving circumstances.
For example, when we look at complex problems like homelessness, we quickly realize that the heart of the matter lies in the future.
Every question we ask about what we should do is entangled with events that are yet to unfold.
- We ponder where individuals experiencing homelessness last night will find themselves today.
- Will they move away from the encampments, or will those spaces be cleared?
- Who will the caseworker recommend for supportive housing?
- And how will the City Council react to the latest alarming news story about police interactions with the homeless?
The truth is, we cannot accurately predict the actions of the many actors involved, nor can we foresee the outcomes of their choices.
Here’s what Arthur says about this kind of problem:
“To the degree that outcomes are unknowable, the decision problems they pose are not well-defined. It follows that rationality -pure deductive rationality- is not well-defined either, for the simple reason that there cannot be a logical solution to a problem that is not logically defined. It follows that in such situations deductive rationality is not just a bad assumption; it cannot exist.“
We stand at the precipice of the future, but its contours and intricacies have not yet emerged.
However, this acknowledgement does not mean we should despair or cease our efforts.
Rather, it compels us to adopt a new perspective—one that embraces the inherent uncertainty.
Complexity-informed imagination
Let me tell you about the fascinating dance between “what is” and “what could be.”
It holds tremendous importance in our pursuit of holistic understanding of complex problems.
On one hand, we have “what is” – the current reality, the tangible facts, the data we can gather and analyze.
This is where deductive reasoning is a strength.
It allows us to deeply understand the intricacies of the present situation.
We collect information, crunch numbers, and consult reputable sources, all to gain a firm grip on the reality at hand.
But here’s the kicker: the current reality is just a single piece of the puzzle.
It’s like looking through a keyhole and seeing only a fraction of the grand tapestry.
There’s so much more to consider.
Enter “what could be” – the realm of possibilities, the untapped potential, the future waiting to unfold.
This is where complexity-informed imagination comes to the forefront.
It’s a way of thinking that goes beyond deductive reasoning and embraces the uncertainty and interconnectedness of complex systems.
But we don’t just dream up solutions willy-nilly, untethered to reality.
That’s what visionaries and brainstormers sometimes forget.
Good intentions and imagination aren’t enough without first having done the hard work of deductive reasoning about the current reality.
You see, it is by connecting the seemingly disparate viewpoints of “what is” and “what could be” that we open ourselves up to a whole new level of understanding.
We bridge the gap between what we know and what we can only imagine.
We transcend the limitations of deductive reasoning and connect it to the transformative power of imagination.
Gaining a holistic perspective
This is how it works:
When we deeply understand “what is” through deductive reasoning, we gain valuable insights into the current landscape.
We uncover patterns, identify key factors, and grasp the nuances of the problem at hand.
We get a sense of what is possible from right now in the current reality.
This knowledge becomes our foundation, our launchpad for exploration.
But it doesn’t stop there.
We then step into the realm of “what could be” with complexity-informed imagination.
We allow ourselves to envision alternative scenarios, to challenge the status quo, and to explore creative solutions.
We embrace the inherent uncertainty and interconnectedness of complex systems, understanding that there are multiple paths, and multiple outcomes, waiting to be discovered.
And here’s the magic: by connecting “what is” and “what could be,” we gain a holistic perspective.
We can see the bigger picture, the interplay between cause and effect, between actions and consequences.
In these convergences lie the keys to effectively improving complex problems, even when there’s no optimal move.
To recap
With complex problems, don’t limit yourself to one viewpoint.
Embrace the dance between “what is” and “what could be” by combining deductive reasoning with complexity-informed imagination.
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See you next week.
Whenever you’re ready, there are two ways I can help you:
→ I’m a strategic advisor for the toughest societal problems like poverty, crime and homelessness. People come to me when they want to stop spinning their wheels and get transformative, systems-level change.
→ I’m a coach for emerging and executive leaders in the social and public sectors who want to make progress on their biggest goals and challenges.
Let’s find out how I can help you become transformational.
